Indo-US Geniality in Asian Context

published in June 21, 2016.

The recent bonhomie between the New Delhi and the Washington has been termed as “consolidation” and “Strategic symphony” between the two countries. The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited United States four times since he took his office in 2014. The recent visit from June7-8 2016 has if one side substantiated the Indo-US bilateral partnership, but at the same time it has erupted new geopolitical fissures in the Asia Continent.

The consolidation of bilateral engagements between the India and the United States particularly in the defense field has not gone well in the geostrategic circles in the Islamabad and Beijing. The joint statement issued after one to one meeting between the President Obama and the Indian Prime Minister resolved that two sides would be “priority partners”. This is “consolidation” on the 2015 US-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The Indian Prime Minister’s speech in the US Congress avoided a direct reference to disputed South and East China seas. But, the Beijing understands that the Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean between the New Delhi and the Washington is containment policy towards China.

The Chinese official statements during Modi’s trip to the US made it clear that India’s admission in the Missile Control and Technology Regime (MTCR) and Washington’s push to India’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group would imbalance the geopolitical landscape in the region particularly between the New Delhi and the Islamabad. It is pertinent to mention that the New Delhi admission in MTCR paved its way to receive duel-use technology from the Washington. Moreover, last hiccups in the Indo-US nuclear agreement have also been resolved. The United States has agreed to start preparatory work for six nuclear reactors to be built by US company Westinghouse in the Andhra Pradesh state of India.

The Washington’s de-hyphenation policy between the New Delhi and the Islamabad would not help in resolving bilateral disputes between India and Pakistan. The Indo-US joint statement issued after the bilateral meeting has reiterated their mutual collaboration in fighting terrorism and a direct reference towards Islamabad. The fact cannot be concealed that the current crisis around the Af-Pak region is the US driven. It would not be a prudent policy to push Pakistan in isolation vis-à-vis fighting irredentist groups in the region.

New Delhi must understand that the US policy of containing China through New Delhi would not be a good move from Indian point of view. Antagonizing Chinese would be an imprudent policy in long run. We have seen how India was pushed by Washington to vote against Iran in the IAEA Board of Governors Meeting in 2005. The Iran-US nuclear agreement reminds New Delhi that how Washington changes its preference even upto 360 degree.

            Coming to South Asia the United States has never acted in sincerity to help in resolving Indo-Pak bilateral disputes. Rather it has always tried to manage their bilateral conflicts upto the level, where its own interest does not get affected. The recent bonhomie between India and the US would ultimately escalate tension in the Indo-Pak bilateral relationship and the same may happen between the Sino-Indo ties. There is a probability that Beijing-Islamabad would counter Indo-US consolidation, which at the end of day would hit a peace in the South Asian region. 

World under Donald Trump

The Donald Trump’s triumph in Indiana Primary has cemented his candidature for the 2016 US presidential elections. The debate has already started what and how the “Trump Syndrome” would impact on the global politics. There is no doubt on the fact that the US is still a leading geopolitical power in the world. Therefore, any shift in the US politics has an accentuated implication on the world politics.  

There are two scenarios to look in, if Donald Trump wins the 2016 US Presidential elections. One is what changes the Trump administration would bring inside the US. The immediate issues he has to look in are emerging gun violence, new kind of racial discrimination, as it became more critical after a brutal killing of a young black boy in the Ferguson last year, issues related to immigration, debts and trade deficit in the US economy etc. These issues may not be so much significant to the outside world. The issues, which are critical to the world outside, are related to the US foreign Policy under the Trump administration.
  As a student of US foreign policy, we don’t see any fundamental difference between the Democrats and Republicans on issues related to the foreign policy. There may be a difference of a degree that too on issue based. We did not see any fundamental shift in the US policy on West Asia from Bush era to the incumbent Obama administration. Notwithstanding, the Obama’s Noble winner Prague and Cairo Speeches on nuclear disarmament and reconciliation towards West Asia respectively did not altered the fundamental sense in the Pentagon, while dealing with the world. The Israel-Palestine issue is still lingering unabatedly. The Iran nuclear deal has brought more trouble than peace in the West Asian region as it has widened the gulf between the Saudi Arabia and the Iran and accelerated sectarian divisions in the region. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) between the Russia and the US has also not materialized; rather the US has pursued a development of new weaponry.

    Instead of the aforesaid fact the Trump’s foreign policy would be an interesting period in the global politics. It is difficult to realize what Trump would do once he takes the throne of White House. Would his speeches during election campaign are off more rhetorical than reality only time would tell us. But, some sense can be drawn from his recent foreign policy speech in which he talk about ‘New Rational American Foreign Policy’ based on American unilateralism, trade protectionism and fight with radical Islam.
Noam Chomsky, worlds leading think tank believes that world would be more dangerous if the Trump wins White House race. Trump’s arguments on issues related to conflicts in West Asia, South China Sea, East China Sea, contestation on issues related to global environment and trade are disastrous.
Donald Trump has hinted that he may revisit the Iran nuclear deal. He talk about war against “radical Islam” and even he suggested that Muslims should be banned from entering into the US. During his recent foreign policy speech he referred Israel as an important alley in the West Asia. Therefore, should be given more protection. He also hinted that the Missile Defense Programme in Poland and Czech Republic would be restarted, therefore more trouble with Russia. Coming to the South Asia he praised India while asking to make Pakistan more accountable. He may deal with India and Pakistan separately that won’t be good for peace and reconciliation between the two nuclear armed neighbors.
Hyperbolism during elections has always been disproved. Whether this happens in Trump’s case the future would tell us, if it does not happen then it is likely that he would bring more trouble to the world.