US
Geopolitics in South Asia
The US is repeatedly ignoring the
decency in bilateral partnerships since its incumbent President Donald Trump
ascended the throne. Abusing an alley for short-term gains is not a new habit
in Washington, albeit it accelerated under current administration. Trump is
more transactional in his attitude vis-à-vis bilateral relationships. The
unveiling of new policy strategy for South Asia in the last month of this year is
one of such moves.
The US under this new policy cursed
Islamabad for its dismal performance on account of unsporting fringe
organizations in the Af-Pak region. The Islamabad has been accused for its
selective approach towards Afghan problem. The Pakistan gets funds for
dismantling the elements that it provides safe heavens. This accusation has
been rebutted by the Islamabad. The Pakistan countered with the view that no
one recognizes its sacrifices since unraveling of 9/11 wars in the region.
However, it is both Washington and the Islamabad who are hard bent on their
national interests that overshadows the sufferings that people in Afghanistan are
facing unabatedly.
The new US policy on the South Asia is
based on three pillars viz. augmenting military personal in the Afghanistan,
pursuing hard tone on Pakistan and relooking on its status of ‘major non-NATO
Ally’, and supporting India’s penetration and its developmental projects in the
country. The policy is full of flaws, as it does not recognize sensitive
concerns of different stakeholders. Accusing Pakistan would not help in
resolving the Afghan problem rather it may prove counterproductive for the
region. The South Asia is already facing the brunt of Indo-Pak rivalry. Pushing
India and cursing Pakistan would further aggravate Indo-Pak tension. The US
should try to de-escalate tension between the old South Asian Rivals. However,
this new policy would do reverse.
The Indian establishment welcomed new
move by the Washington. The new South Asia policy is in line with the New
Delhi’s long stand narrative. India has always pursued in the Washington that
Islamabad is misusing the funds it receives from US and creating anti-Indian
proxies in the region. New Delhi presents its role in Afghanistan in positive
manner. It is fifth largest donor for reconstruction and development in
Afghanistan. From training Afghan police to reconstruction of roads and
hospitals, New Delhi has moral argument for its presence in the Kabul. However,
the Islamabad has different narrative on this.
Islamabad believes that New Delhi is
using its soft power in Afghanistan to destabilize not only Af-Pak region, but
bring instability inside Pakistan. It is creating anti-Pakistan proxies in the
region. After unveiling this new policy Pakistan military general has cautioned
Washington over its strategic partnership with New Delhi in Afghanistan. It is
pertinent to mention that it was not incumbent US President but, his
predecessor Barak Obama who had unveiled Indo-US Joint Strategic Vision on
Afghanistan during his New Delhi visit in the year 2015.
This is well-established fact that Washington has been always very
cautious on India’s deep role in the Afghanistan. Since the incumbent President
resumes his office a “South Asia balancing” policy has been attrited to a large
extent. The growing sense in the Washington is based on the narrative that New
Delhi promises good fortunes for its businesses and economy, therefore, Indian
partnership is more important than Islamabad’s. Given the fact that Trump is a
businessman and believes in quid-pro-quo policy, it is likely that in days to
come New Delhi would be more accommodated in the larger policy orientations in
the Washington.
The new policy as outlined by the
leading scholar Sumit Ganguly in his recent article in the Foreign Affairs,
would backfire, as the sense of encirclement by India in Pakistan would
increase. This may bring the dragon China and would unveil new crisis in the
region. Keeping in view the recent Sino-India bilateral animosity over Docklam
issue, China-Pakistan partnership particularly over Belt Road Initiative, this
policy may unfold new geopolitical contestation.
The fact can not be denied that all the
contestants viz. US, India and Pakistan would not offer any constructive role
for the stability in Afghanistan, if they follow their crude national
interests. The US is there to check Russian and Chinese influences. Pakistan considers
it ‘strategic depth’. For New Delhi other than countering Pakistan, Afghanistan
promises alternative energy routs for its thirsty economy into Central Asia.
The problem in Afghanistan cannot be resolved
through geopolitical bargaining. It can be resolved through Afghan driven,
regional based and diplomatic initiative at the highest level. If not done in
that manner, the problem will aggravate and one day it would take all these
countries down may be except the geographically far away US. Meanwhile, on
daily bases it is Afghan people not the people in these countries, who are
facing this crude realist brunt. All are looking for their interests, no one
cares about the agonies the people in Afghanistan are facing daily basis.
