Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement: Achievements and complications.


Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement: Achievements and complications.



Abstract


The conventional wisdom on indo-US relations states that in the last few years, the two sides have elevated their interaction to a deeper level. The Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) has substantiated the Indo-US relations. These steps include discussions on cooperation in defense technology, proposed sale of advanced fighter aircrafts, and the supply of civilian nuclear material. Moreover, in July 2005, joint statement resolved to establish a US-India “global partnership” through increased cooperation on economic issues, on energy and the environment, on democracy and development, on non-proliferation and security, and on high technology and space. The biggest landmark in the Indo-US relations was achieved with the unveiling of Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement in July 2005. This agreement has put Indo-US relation on new heights. The irritants in the bilateral relations in terms of ideology, closed Indian economy, India’s inclination towards Soviet Union during the cold war and later India’s nuclear detonation and its pessimistic attitude towards the NPT have certainly created hyphenation in the bilateral relations, but with the unveiling of nuclear agreement there is a shift in the bilateral engagements not only on nuclear front but on other broad issues as well. Notwithstanding, the merits of Indo-US nuclear deal there are many issues that are yet to be resolved vis-à-vis Indo-US nuclear agreement. The objective of this paper is to understand the deal and also what are the issues, on which the consensus has not been incurred.

a full article can be read at http://thirdfront.in/ojs/index.php/tjhss/article/view/4/3

Monday, 3 February 2014

Coalition Governments in India: Precepts and Prospects.


From Archive: August 22 2009
            
 “With the replacement of dominant party system of India, minority or coalition governments at centre have become the order of the day. Yet instability apart, coalition of governments has been affective in enhancing democratic legitimacy, representation and national unity. Major policy shifts like neoliberal economic reforms and grass root decentralization, in theory or practice, are largely attributable to the onset of federal coalitional governance. Coalition governments in the state and at the centre have also facilitated gradual transition of the Marxist-left and Hindu-right into the political establishment, and thus contributed to the integration of the party system as well as the nation. The same major national parties which initially rejected the idea of coalition politics have today accepted it and are maturing into skilled and virtuous performers at the game’’.
India has entered the era of coalition politics. It appears that the coalition governments will become a natural phenomenon in the years to come. With the diminishing of single party dominance, the importance of coalition governments have become almost inevitable be at centre or states.
         Since coalition Govt. in India is in transition phase or has not reached its maturity, so its definition is somewhat exhaustive and may include something more. Coalition government is an arrangement for the postponement of an unwanted election. It is a European concept. Coalition basically can be called as consensus politics or colligate style of functioning. Furthermore, it is also an alliance between two or more parties which are separate or even hostile to carry on the government and share principle offices of the state.   
            Even with the absence of two party systems in India, the British model worked fairly well in the era of one party domination because congress could always command the majority in Lok Sabha. It seems that age is now over and we may be witnessing the dawn of era of hung parliaments and coalition governments. In any case, we must assume that the prospect of a “hung” parliament in future remains a real one. This may pose many problems for the president, since it may no longer be obvious who should be appointed prime minister and a number of political combinations may be possible for the president. How then is a government to be formed in such circumstances and more particularly how to know out of various possible combinations is the president to decide who should be given the first opportunity to form a government?
     A political party supporting a minority government from outside is not a new phenomenon in India. The Indra Gandhi government during 1969-71, the Charan Singh Government, the VP Singh Government and the Chandrasekhar governments were all minority Governments supported from outside.
                   One defining feature before 1927 in India was that India had one potential enemy .i.e. British and other challenges to the country were of secondary importance. So all energy of nation and peoples conscious was awakened by congress to get out of colonial yoke. Indian national congress was itself a coalition organization representing different ideological, ethnical, and religious groups. But the appeal of congress after 1947 got shortened which resulted in the end of its monopoly in 1989 when the first coalition government was established under V.P. Singh. So it may be called as an enemy within the nation for the congress party after 1947.
             After 1947, post colonial structure in India, which consisted of:
(a)     State (b) economy) (c) civil society resulted in a triangular system which generated consciousness into different spheres of society. So there was a demand for different new things from different people or section’s of society. Which no single political party could claim to fulfill wholly. So no political party could claim to be representative of whole nation. So it also necessitated the coalition form of govt.
   In the 1998 election study, poll Wallace had identified “three major strands” that defined the vote for the 12th Lok Sabha: a new respectability for the hindutva, the emergence of regional parties as the new balancing force in the national coalition politics, and the weaponisation of the nuclear capacity. A year later the electorate found itself having to vote once again in a national election. In this study of the 1999 election, the first and third themes pretty much fade away, while the entire focus gets narrowed down to regional parties at the national stage. Formation of coalition governments reflects the transition in Indian politics away from the national parties toward smaller, more narrowly-based regional parties. This process has been underway throughout much of the past decayed and is likely to continue in the future.

               A common fallacy that is related to the convection that India’s polity is essentially bipolar is the nation that the decline of the congress and the rise of the BJP bear almost a one-to-one correspondence. The rise of the BJP is seen as a process of the party occupying the centrist political space vacated by the congress. Though this view point is common, the reality is far more complicated. It is true that the period witnessed the fastest growth of the BJP as an electoral force has coincided with the phase of the most rapid decline of the congress-that is perhaps why the two phenomena are seen as correlated. However, what such a view point misses is the fact that in areas where the congress has been almost completely marginalized, it has been displaced not so much by the BJP as the smaller regional parties.

                If we look at the period between the late-1960s and the mid-1980s, there were already signs of the congress losing ground gradually to regional parties. The most obvious example would be Tamil Nadu, where the congress has today little choice but to align with one or the other of the two main Dravidian parties in the State-the DMK or the AIADMK. But Tamil Nadu is not the only example. Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, traditional strongholds of the congress, witnessed similar trends even if the process did not lead to the complete marginalization of the congress, In Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party rose form almost nowhere to become a powerful challenge to the congress in the mid-1980s to the congress in the mid-1980s and has remained the main contender for power with the congress. Similarly, in Maharashtra it was the rise of the Shiv Sena rather than the BJP, which first raised questions about just how firm the congress grip on power I the state was. In other words, the decline of the congress has not automatically resulted in the rise of the BJP, put differently; the political tussle between the two largest political parties in India has not been the zero sum game in which the looses of one inevitable results in the other gaining by filling a so-called political vacuum.

           It is this resentment, DR. Kaviraj suggests, that has been trapped by various political groups leading to the fragmentation of the polity. He also argues that the resentment against the elite extends to a rejection of all that the elite stood for, including the notion of the Indian identity over-riding sub-national identities. He writes: “since these elite speaks the language of national integration and unity, the later (movements of non-elite) speaks the negative language of localism, regional autonomy, small-scale nationalism, in dystopias of ethnicy-small xenophobic, homogeneous, political communities.

    The TDP, for instance, appeals to the Telugu identity across Andhra Pradesh. Clearly, it is not the case that all Telugus have been left out of the development process. Similar, nobody can seriously argue that the Shiv Sena’s appeal to a Maharashtra identity arises from the feeling that all of Maharashtra has been denied the benefits of economic growth. Obviously, it has been possible for such parties as the TDP and the Shiv Sena to use the resentment of specific sections of those speaking telgu and Marathi and channel it along lines of their choosing.
                          The process of social stratification and caste and minorities consolidation has strengthened diverse political formations. The RJD and SP will continue to attract OBC and minorities support as the BSP will continue to consolidate the Dalits in up and Bihar, the upper castes will continue to back the BJP. Regional parties like Alkali Dal, National Conference, DMK, AIADMK, Shiv- Sina, telgu Desam, Lok Shakti and myriad parties in the north east will continue to play a significant role. As will the left which is a major regional force in west Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. All this will ensure the continuation of coalition politics.
       Some critics consider this a bad thing, a sign of political instability which will bedevil India’s growth prospects. This is misguided. Coalition politics will militate against authoritarian tendencies revealed during the emergencies and the unaccountability of ruling parties. Today’s diverse parties represent diverse social interests and groups, and the diversification of political power is symptomatic of democratization. Diverse coalition by the logic of its representation will be accountable to diverse interests including those not earlier represented in political power. This makes coalition more democratic than less representative single ruling parties.              
 Coalition politics has generated certain new political formulations in Indian politics like party support from outside being in the coalition but outside the government and inside the coalition and inside the government and inside the coalition and outside the government at the time performing the role of opposition. Further, as never before, regional parties are playing crucial role at the central level. Regional parties have strengthened their importance so much so that it is now impossible for any national party to form a government at central level without the support of regional parties. Thus one or more national parties have to make alliance with regional political parties of similar thinking to consolidate the voters and get power. These alliances are becoming more representative and the number of partners is also increasing.
            The problem lies in the weakness of a coalition culture such a culture is strong in several states, notably in Karalla where two coalitions have long contended for power, and in west Bengal where the left front coalition has ruled for decades. A coalition culture will have to be developed and strengthened; leading political parties will be constrained to contribute to this to survive in power. Both BJP and congress have learnt now substantially a part of coalition government. So, contrary to the prophets of boom, coalition politics can be concomitant of the country’s progress. Given current political realities it have to be. Moreover, looking the verdict of recent parliamentary elections it seems that India is now becoming mature vis-à-vis norms of coalition politics is concerned. Therefore, it would not be unrealistic to articulate that in years to come India would enter into stable coalition politics as we have already seen the successful be it previous NDA or UPA IST.  
Impact of coalitions:
1.    There is increase in discretionary powers of the head of the heads of state, i.e. Governor at state level and President at central level.
2.    The executive functions of both PM and CM have become a subject of great constraints both in the cabinet and legislature which resulted in their weak position.
3.    Decision making has become complicated.
4.    Speakers post has gained much importance.
5.    Problem of instability remains always there.
6.    Politics of opportunism and corruption has widened. Ramsay Mc Donald has rightly said that, “coalitions are dishonest”.
7.    Power of bureaucracy, mass media and interest groups has increased.
8.    Ideology has taken the back seat or there has been de-ideologisation.

REFERENCES:
1. Wikipedia-The free encyclopedia, "politics of india".
2. Myron Weiner, (ed)-state politics in india, princeton university press, 1968.
3. Mathew george (ed)-shift in indian politics, concept publications, new delhi, 1984.
4. "Coalitions politics in india"-Dr. R.D.Boddamani, third concept, sept. 2007.
5. Mahandra prasad singh and anil mishra-"coalition politics in india:problems and prospects",manohar publications, new delhi, 2004.

6.Coalition politics in india, madhu dandravate, politics india, Feb. , 1997.

From “Pivot” to ‘US-European Union Free Trade Agreement’: United State’s Decelerating Economy and its Geo-Political downfall.



   June 2013 (published in the ThirdConcept, an international Journal of Ideas)                                                                                      
The American announcement of ‘Asia Pivot’ in 2011, which was officially pronounced by then Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton by publishing an article in Foreign Policy Magazine titled “America’s Pacific Century”, it has brought an alarming signals in the circles of geo-strategists not only in Asia-Pacific region but also in Europe as well.[i] United States has been a stabilizing factor in both geo-political and geo-economic terms in Europe in the post 2nd World War period and Europe has always contemplated on US vis-à-vis its economic and political security is concerned. The US has been financing the Europe to recover from the shakes of 2nd world war in the form of Marshal Plan.[ii] Notwithstanding, the given argument that Europe has much recovered in all respects, but the fact cannot be denied that US had its own interests in bringing the stability in Europe as it was then critical to US security paradigm, keeping in view the ex Soviet Union factor and its influences in Europe.
The post world war globe has dramatically changed since the end of Cold War and downfall of Soviet Russia. The strategies of American policy makers are also showing visible signs of new preferences and moods. The US has realized that Asia will be a dominating factor in geo-politics and global economy in the twenty first century, thereby, US has accordingly molded its foreign policy preferences. “The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the centre of the action” underlined by the former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, thus made an alarming signal to European States in the form of ‘Asia Pivot’ that US will invest its diplomatic-cum-economic investment in Asia Pacific than elsewhere.[iii] It is more significant as Asia Pacific promises future economic opportunities and therefore, US will calculate its preferences between Europe and Asia.
Under the Obama Administration, the United States has made a major shift towards Asia and the Asia-Pacific region in general. “For the United States, this reflects a broader shift. After a decade in which we fought two wars that cost us dearly, in blood and treasure, the United States is turning its attention to the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region,” Mr. Obama said during his trip to Australia last year in November.[iv] The new focus on this region reflects a fundamental truth that the United States has been, and always will be, a Pacific nation, he said. “Asian immigrants helped to build America, and millions of American families, including my own, cherish our ties to this region. From the bombing of Darwin to the liberation of Pacific islands, from the rice paddies of Southeast Asia to a cold Korean Peninsula, generations of Americans have served here, and died here so democracies could take root; so economic miracles could lift hundreds of millions to prosperity,” Mr. Obama said. “Here, we see the future. As the world’s fastest-growing region and home to more than half the global economy the Asia Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority, and that’s creating jobs and opportunity for the American people,” the US President said. With most of the world’s nuclear power and some half of humanity, Asia will largely define whether the century ahead will be marked by conflict or cooperation, needless suffering or human progress, Mr.Obama said during his Australia trip. “As President, I have, therefore, made a deliberate and strategic decision as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future, by upholding core principles and in close partnership with our allies and friends,” he said.[v]
The terms like “Asia Pivot,” “Strategic Rebalance,” and “Asia Focus,” popularized by then U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  Asia Pivot can be comprehended from two broad perspectives. One the geo-economics of the pivot and two, the geo-politics of the Asia pivot.
Geo-Economics of the Pivot:
a.       Asia-Pacific region is stretched from Indian subcontinent which also includes India Ocean to the shores of Americas through the Pacific Ocean thus makes it most promising from navigation, resources and trade point of view.
b.      This region promises unprecedented prospects for investment, technology, trade and ensuring freedom of navigation and sea lines.
c.       This region is most populated region as it includes world’s two most populated states of China and India thus promises abundant man/labour power.
d.      The region of Asia-Pacific is more significant as the region is key engine of global economy. The two big emerging economies of the world- China and India are located in this region and they will be decisive in the future economic diplomacy.[vi]
Geo-Political significance:
a.       The region of Asia-Pacific holds the key allies to the United States such as Japan, South Korea Australia etc. thus make this region more attractive to US.
b.      The region of Asia-Pacific holds not only rich land/marine resources but also key sea routs and straits which are very critical from security point of view.
c.       Important trade routes are going through this region which is very critical to US security given the fact that the region has huge potential of resources.
d.      Rich seas such as south china and East China Sea are located in this region and are very critical to the allies of US.[vii]
The Asia Pivot as has been underlined by the Hillary Clinton has following broad contours:
a.       Strengthening the bilateral security alliances as US has already started to proceed on these lines with Australia, South Korea, Japan etc.
b.      Strengthening and deepening its engagements with the emerging powers of the world such as China. Indonesia and India.
c.       Engaging with regional multilateral institutions such as ASEAN, APEC etc.
d.      Expanding trade and investment in the region as the regions has huge potential on these lines.
e.       Forging a broad based military presence in the region in order to ensure its security as well as of its alliance partners.
f.       Advancing democracy and human rights in the region.[viii]
The Obama administration has sought to rebalance American policy toward Asia since the middle of 2011. The rebalance, or misnamed “pivot,” is usually depicted in military or security terms, with America shifting its focus and resources from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan back to the Asia-Pacific region, where U.S. economic and security interests are greater. In fact, rebalancing was originally an integrated strategy with military, diplomatic, and economic initiatives intended to strengthen U.S. involvement in the region, demonstrated by President Obama’s ten-day trip through Asia in November 2011.
The Asia Pivot operation has already begun with the Obama’s visit to Asian states last year. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said that “The President’s trip to Asia will be an opportunity to build on our successful efforts to refocus on the Asia Pacific as the most rapidly growing and dynamic region in the world”.[ix] Last year when President Obama travelled to Thailand, Cambodia and Burma, simultaneously, the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and the Defence Secretary Leon Panetta were also in the region; which is vindication of the importance being attached to the Asia Pacific region by the Obama Administration. The Jay Carney also reiterated that, the President will focus on expanding US trade and economic ties in the region, supporting democracy and human rights, and working through regional institutions to ensure that nations abide by the rules of the road”.[x]
There is a transformational shift in the new US foreign policy preference and the most visible sign is in its military sphere. US have planned to expand its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region to counter any upcoming challenge as it has already announced new deployment or rotations of troops and equipments to Australia and Singapore.
The American ‘Asia Pivot’ is not immune from risks it embodies. In an era of constrained U.S. defense resources, a new shift in U.S. military emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region might lead in a
reduction in U.S. military capacity in other regions of the world. The next important is budgetary consideration is that plans to restructure U.S. military deployments in Asia and minimize cuts in the Navy may run up against more restrictive funding constraints than plans yet assume. Furthermore, the perception among many that the “rebalancing” is targeted against China could strengthen the hand of Chinese hard-liners. Such Prints could also substantially make it more difficult for the United States to achieve China’s cooperation on a range of issues. Moreover, the prominence the Obama Administration has given to the initiative has raised the costs to the United States if it or successor administrations fail to follow through on public pledges made, particularly in the military realm.[xi]
China factor:
Some commentators believe that the Asia Pivot is nothing but containment of China by other means. China is not only likely to overtake US as a dominant economic power but also emerging as a capable military power to ascertain its position in the Asia-Pacific region. China is becoming more assertive in its responses to territorial sovereignty disputes, and its influence on international and regional affairs is growing. Unforeseen events complicated the picture. Tensions erupted between the Philippines, Vietnam, and China in the South China Sea, between Japan and China in the East China Sea, and between Japan and South Korea over disputed but relatively insignificant territorial claims.[xii]
The Chinese influence in the Asia Pacific region has grown considerably for last few years as China has always considered Asia-Pacific as its area of influence. China has now declared ‘indisputable sovereignty’ over South China Sea; as also its ‘core area of interest'. Seeking a historic shift in the Asia-Pacific ‘balance of power', China tries to replace the US as a dominant Asia Pacific power by its assertive diplomatic-cum-military presence in the region.[xiii] 
President Obama referred to China for the first time as an “adversary.” The US China relations today face great challenges from trust deficit in bilateral relations to regional tension over the issue of territorial sovereignty in the Asia Pacific region. The instability in Asia also poses dilemmas for a Washington that has doubled down on its alliance commitments across the Pacific. The growing rift between China and its smaller neighbors in the South China Sea and the East China Sea pose serious challenge for the United States in the western Pacific.[xiv]
A Pentagon ‘National Military Strategy’ paper underlines that US strategic calculations and its security paradigm will overwhelmingly concentrate in Asia-Pacific. Robert Gates, ex US Defense Secretary said that Pentagon would sustain funding for ‘air superiority and mobility, long range strike, nuclear deterrence, maritime access, space, cyberwar, intelligence and surveillance’ in South-East Asia. Barrack Obama’s presence in Bali during the recent East Asian Summit is an indication of US enhanced strategic engagement in Asia-Pacific. In cognizance with the new emerging dynamics, the US is deploying more troops, submarines and surface vessels to strengthen its forward presence, besides taking counter measures against Chinese missiles.[xv]
Therefore, China too will have to identify the parameters and implications of American pivot so for as China’s own security paradigm is concerned. The biggest game changer may well be the new administration in Beijing — the mood and demeanor of the new leadership led by Xi Jinping. Given the narrative that US is no more a sole power and the era of American dominance has gone therefore, the form and content of the U.S. pivot to Asia may be determined more by Asians than Americans.
The essential goal of the US Asia Pacific policy is to devote more effort to impact the development of the Asia-Pacific’s norms and rules, more significantly as China has emerged an assertive regional power. Given that one implication of the “pivot” or “rebalancing” toward the Asia-Pacific is to strengthening U.S. credibility in the region.[xvi] This is more important as US economy is not in good shape and also budgetary constraints will determine to what extent the Administration’s plans are implemented and how various trade-offs are managed.
Pivot’s Implication on Europe:
The “pivot to Asia” proclaimed by Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton underlined “the future of politics will be decided in Asia.” The Clinton reiterated the American commitment towards Europe in the form of aid and security but now “The time has come for the United States to make similar investments as a Pacific power.” [xvii] There is great ambivalence in the new foreign policy of US as there will be a shift in focus from Europe to Asia Pacific in the US calculation of global geo-politics. The 2011 Transatlantic Trends Report marked the first time that the American public believed that their national interest are secure more with Asia than with Europe.
The message Ms Clinton has transmitted is very clear to Europe that Asia is more important than Europe in its calculation as she put it like this “as the war in Iraq winds down and America begins to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan, the United States stands at a pivot point. Over the last 10 years, we have allocated immense resources to those two theaters. In the next 10 years, we need to be smart and systematic about where we invest time and energy, so that we put ourselves in the best position to sustain our leadership, secure our interests, and advance our values. One of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade will therefore be to lock in a substantially increased investment -- diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise -- in the Asia-Pacific region”.[xviii]
            The US economy is recessing and is not much promising as defined by the Obama administration that US is committed to continue the expenditures in Asia and shall not be reduced therefore, the scheme will hit none other than Europe. As US is cutting down its $500 billion in its expenditures which will directly expose the Europe and also US administration has already announced that it intends to withdraw two of the four U.S. army brigades currently deployed in Europe — with overall military spending in Europe set to decline by 15 percent.[xix]
Now there is a genuine threat being worried to all the European states that US shift in its policy is somewhere giving signals that Europe is no more as relevant as it used to be in post second world war. It is China, India and Indonesia which is more significant than Europe to US vis-à-vis US geostrategic designs are concerned. “The fulcrum for our strategic turn to the Asia-Pacific,” According to the New York Times, this includes “six aircraft carriers and a majority of the Navy’s cruisers, destroyers, littoral combat ships and submarines, [and] an accelerated pace of naval exercises and port calls in the Pacific.”[xx] 
            Therefore, it will be an interesting to see to what extent US will succeed in its new approach given the fact that US is no more a sole decisive power and it has to face Chinese resistance in the region which will be a litmus test to US in new realities of global politics. There is one narrative that USA has declined and in order to protect its sole power status it has brought Asia Pivot to show the world that America is still in control of world affairs. Additionally, USA also realize Chinese threat and its growing influence in the Asia Pacific region which can be vindicated from the fact that how China maneuvered the last ASEAN summit which ended without any official communiqué, given the fact that ASEAN was supposed to press on China to resolve its dispute amicably with its neighbors on the disputed South China Sea.
            The new development in the form of US-Europe free trade agreement which some commentators believe is reverse of Asia Pivot. The new team of President Obama’s administration which includes John Kerry, US Secretary of State, Chuck Hegel, Defence Secretary etc. have new priorities and the time will tell will they reverse the Asia Pacific narrative or continue with the Clinton-Gates legacy.
The recent visit of John Kerry to Europe to push US-Europe free trade agreement demonstrates that Europe is still promising. John Kerry on his visit to Germany said “we think this is something that can help lift the economy of Europe, strengthening our economy, create jobs for Americans, for Germans, for all Europeans, and create one of the largest allied markets in the world”.[xxi] President Obama in his recent State of the Union address underlined US-E.U. free trade negotiations in a single sentence well down in the text: “Tonight, I’m announcing that we will launch talks on a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union, because trade that is fair and free across the Atlantic supports millions of good-playing American Jobs.”[xxii]
The Year before Obama and his team lead by Hillary Clinton was busy with drawing the parameters of Asia Pivot and but now, the new Obama team has different engagements not in Asia but in Europe in stretching the parameters of US-E.U. free trade agreement. Now, a question which confronts, is US going back to Europe? If so, then does it mean that US is not able to catch up the influence of assertive China in the Asia Pacific region. The above account does portray a complicated situation and the time will define whether US is coming back to Europe or keeping in hand both of these.     




[i] Clinton Hilary, “America’s Pacific Century,” Foreign Policy, November 2011, Available here: http://
www.foreignpolicy.com
[ii]  Rachman Gideon, “The US Pivot to Asia-should Europeans worry”, April 2012, Available at: http://www.cepolicy.org
[iii] “America’s Pacific Century,” by Hilary Clinton. Foreign Policy, November 2011. Available here: http://
www.foreignpolicy.com
[iv] “Asia trip to refocus on the most rapidly growing region: US”, online edition, The Hindu, November 10, 2012, Available at: http://www.thehindu.com
[v] Ibid.
[vi] Morse S. Eric, “Pivot to Asia: Calculus and Consequences”, Fall 2012 Volume 21, Issue 4. Available at: http://www.nationalstrategy.com
[vii] Ibid.
[viii] Clinton Hilary, “America’s Pacific Century,” Foreign Policy, November 2011, Available here: http://
www.foreignpolicy.com
[ix]  Gerson Joseph, “Reinforcing Washington’s Asia Pacific Hegemony”, Foreign Affairs, September 13, 2012, Available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com
[x] Ibid.
[xi] Ross S. Robert, “The Problem With The Pivot”, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2012, Available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com
[xii]Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration’s “Rebalancing” Toward Asia”, Congressional Research Service, March 2012, Available at: http://www.cfr.org
[xiii] Pall D. H. & Haenle Paul, “A new great power relationship with Beijing”, November 2012, Available at: http//www.e-ir.org
[xiv] Swieboda Pawel, “Who is afraid of the big bad Pivot: Central Europe’s worries about U.S. foreign policy”, Foreign Affairs, December 2012. Available at: http//www.foreignaffairs.com
[xv] Dwivedi. G. G., “Dragon’s fire ignites a strategic rethink”, Available at: http://www.tribuneindia.com
[xvi] Saran Samir, “Obama’s Eastern Pivot made in Asia”, November 2012, Available at: http://www.thehindu.com
[xvii] Rachman Gideon, “The US Pivot to Asia-should Europeans worry”, April 2012, Available at: http://www.cepolicy.org
[xviii] Clinton Hilary, “America’s Pacific Century,” Foreign Policy, November 2011, Available here: http://
www.foreignpolicy.com
[xix] Rachman Gideon, “The US Pivot to Asia-should Europeans worry”, April 2012, Available at: http://www.cepolicy.org


[xx]   Gerson Joseph, “Reinforcing Washington’s Asia Pacific Hegemony”, Foreign Affairs, September 13, 2012, Available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com

[xxi] http://www.diplonews.com
[xxii] Ibid.




























Palestine Bid for Statehood: US-Israel Hegemony


Palestine Bid for Statehood: US-Israel Hegemony
        September 27 2011                                                                                      
The Palestine bid for statehood in United Nations General Assembly has been closely watched by the world. The Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas has requested the United Nations to recognize the Palestine an independent state and for its permanent membership in United Nations. The final decision of it will be taken by the Security Council where USA is likely to veto any such resolution which asks independent state of Palestine.  
This move of Palestinian Liberation Authority has been criticized by the Israel and its Allies particularly by the United States. USA has been saying to resolve the issue with mutual consensus between Israel and Palestine without pressing its alley Israel to stop the demolition and confiscation of Palestinian homeland. The Israel is illegally occupying the Palestinian land since Britain issued the ‘Balfour Declaration’ in 1917, which stated ‘Britain’s support for the establishment of national homeland for Jewish people in Palestine’. Since 1948, when Israel declared its independence there have been many wars between Arab world and Israel viz. 1948 war, six day war of 1967, the October war of 1973, 1982 in Lebanon and recently in 2006.
The bigger concerns to the Palestinian are the settlement of illegal constructions in West Bank by Israel, demolition of Palestinian’s homeland and their confiscation, issue of millions of refugees who have been forced to leave their homelands, ethnic cleansing, blockade of goods and services to the people of Palestine, and acute human rights violation.
Though, there have been many resolutions, conferences, agreements, negotiations and plans for the settlement of Israel-Palestinian conflict, but all the times Israel has never moved, even an inch, from its longstanding approach and stand. Israel consider any move that will recognize Palestine as a sovereign state as ‘existential threat’ and ‘de-legitimization’ to the state of Israel. It has also apprehension about the nexus of Hamas, which controls the Gaza, with Iran and Hezbollah of Lebanon. But the question still is not what Israel thinks about the security and survival of its state, the bigger questions is its illegitimate occupation and untenable violation of the rights of Palestinian people.
Palestinian people have always compromised with Israel vis-à-vis the resolution of the conflict is concerned. It is Israel which always creates hurdles in the final settlement of the issue. Palestinian’s are ready for the ‘Two-State Solution’ along the borders of the 1967 with East Jerusalem as its capital. But this concession even is not acceptable to the state of Israel. Ironically, the policy of Israel and USA is riddled with paradoxes. George Bush, Former US President, was perhaps the first American leader to call publicly for a Palestinian state and endorsed Israel’s illegitimate policy of settlement and its violation of international law. Though Obama promised change and reconciliation in his Cairo speech after he took White House, but nothing radical happened. The status quo is unabatedly persistent vis-à-vis US policy on Palestine is concerned.

    The Arab uprising has given new dimension to the Arab-Israel conflict. The democratization and freedom have been the epicenter of the Arab uprising in recent times. This has also impacted the policy of Israel and US in Arab World. Moreover, the Palestinian bid for statehood in United Nations General Assembly has weakened the Israel and US in diplomatic world. It is unlikely that Palestine will achieve any big thing out of it, but it is sure that the Israel-Palestine conflict will receive a new dimension in its history.

India-Afghan Strategic Partnership and peace in the Af-Pak region

                India-Afghan Strategic Partnership and peace in the Af-Pak region
28 feb. 2011
The ‘Strategic Partnership’ between India and Afghanistan is a substantive leap per se as it will help destabilized Afghanistan to move forward in its stabilization process in both political-cum-strategic senses. The partnership will also help India strategically and it will gain leverage in negotiating the political landscaping of the Afghanistan. Moreover, the strategic partnership may culminate the albatross around India in dealing with strategic interests in South and Central Asia.    
Kabul and New Delhi signed a landmark strategic partnership agreement during Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s visit to New Delhi recently. The strategic partnership includes training, equipping and capacity building of the Afghan National Security Services, institutional framework for their future cooperation in the fields of political and security cooperation, trade and economic cooperation, capacity building and education, and social, cultural, civil society and people- to-people relations. Moreover, two MoUs were also signed for the development of minerals and natural gas in Afghanistan and also India’s commitment of $1.2 billion developmental aid for reconstruction and infrastructural development in Afghanistan.
The timing of strategic partnership between India and Afghanistan is good from Indian point of view as Obama administration in Washington D. C. is set to withdraw its combat forces from the Afghanistan by 2014. India has apprehension about resurgence and regrouping of Taliban in Kabul in post-American withdrawal as India perceives it as detriment of its national security. India has been impressing the US to relook on its withdrawal policy as revealed through Wiki Leaks. WiKiLeaKs cable dated February 11, 2010, sent from New Delhi on the eve of Senator John Kerry's visit (248366: secret), outlined Indian worries over the possibility of a U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan. “On Afghanistan, there are underlying concerns that U.S. policy foreshadows an early exit from Afghanistan with negative security consequences for India. India has expressed concern about the outlines of the reintegration policy promoted by the Karzai government and supported by the US.”
India is very much concerned about post-American withdrawal Kabul as if Taliban re-emerges in power it may hit India strategically and its nexus with Pak army is big worrisome for Indian establishment. To what extent this apprehension is tenable needs great appraisal as we cannot think future Afghan without Taliban. Taliban is one of the elements in Afghanistan to which reconciliation is significant for the final settlement of the Afghan problem. In June 2011, the International Crisis Group reported that the Taliban had expanded far beyond its stronghold in the south and southeast to central-eastern provinces. "Insurgent leaders have achieved momentum in the central-eastern provinces by employing a strategy that combines the installation of shadow governments, intimidation, and the co-opting of government officials," it noted. Therefore, India has to some where accommodate the Taliban in its Afghan policy and for the long-term benefit India should rethink on its apprehension about re-emergence of Taliban in Kabul.
Some circles in Pak establishment are highly concerned with India’s growing influence in Karzai’s administration in Kabul. The recent strategic partnership between India and Afghanistan has been closely watched by Pak establishment and deemed it as an ‘encirclement’ of Pakistan. Though the Afghan President in his address was calculative in using the word ‘twin brother’ for Pakistan but it could not have pleased all the sections of Pak establishment.
The Indian developmental projects and aid to Afghanistan is also irritating Islamabad as it consider Indian growing presence in the region threat to the national security of Pakistan. The apprehensions of Pakistan are tenable as it has close link and proximity with Afghanistan on political, cultural, religious, ethnicity etc. grounds. But at the same time Islamabad should also take the cognizance of India’s role in the future stabilized Afghanistan.  A group of senior non-official American and Russian policy analysts recently spent a long discussion on various issues pertaining the future Afghanistan and the role of big and neighboring powers. Everyone agreed that Pakistan's goals in Afghanistan were strongly influenced by its desire to eliminate Indian influence. Some of the Russian participants went a step further and argued that changing India-Pakistan relations was essential to stabilizing Afghanistan. Therefore it is highly desirable and essential that both India and Pakistan should take note of each other’s concerns and should avoid the policy of zero-sum-game.
Indian policy in Af-Pak region should not be exclusionary in nature and should not be at the cost of Pakistan. Excluding the Pakistan or pursuing anything against Pakistan in Af-Pak region would not help in overcoming the crisis the region is confronted with. Pak-India reconciliation and peace is imperative for maintaining the peace in the region and also building the future Afghanistan.
 The crisis in Washington-Islamabad relations which increased after the assassination of former Afghan President Burhanudin Rabani, who was given a job to reconcile with Taliban by Karzai’s Administration backed by USA. The US alleged Pakistan about ISI role in the Assassination of former Afghan President and impressed Islamabad to deal strictly against terrorist operating along Af-Pak region. If India pursues policies against Pakistan it may help the fundamentalist forces to substantiate their approach towards the region and would destabilize the whole region eventually.    
    Therefore, India should not extract its individual benefits from the abyss in Washington-Islamabad relations and alleviation in Delhi-Kabul relations as that may derail peace and would not help in stabilizing the regional cooperation and bilateral relations. Rather India should seek this as an opportunity to build understanding with Pakistan in resolving both bilateral as well as regional issues amicably.             

     

Globalization vs. Democratization - I WORLD ORDER

Globalization vs. Democratization - I

WORLD ORDER

27 february 2008

They don’t want to univerAsalize the world but to have it Westernised. But we must not forget Globalization is the antithesis of democracy, writes Bhat Younes. History is replete with instances that in every period there used to be some norms associated with life, which not only became the order of day but also popularized the period to the extent that the periods are now been interpreted or contextualized with reference to those norms. The manifestations of such norms could be traced from the privileged citizenship of the Greek period, laws of the Roman Empire or nature rights theories of 17th and 18th century. In the contemporary world, the order of the day is globalization and democratization. The former involves integration of world economics and ‘permeability of territorial borders’. The latter is associated with ‘popularizing people’s rule’ and ‘redress grievances of the marginalized or under-privileged sections of the societies’.
 Rajni Khotari, a noted political scientist while commenting on the new forms of capitalism says that “it is a bastard economy’. In the globalized world, the national governments are not able to integrate offered services to the people. Thereby, it has resulted in a situation which Rajni Kothari names as “social- Darwinism”, which is a market situation where logic is “big fish eats small fish” or in Darwin’s terminology “survival of the fittest”.
 At present different forces are in operation at global-level. The dawn of 21st century accelerated the process of democratization. The 9/11 has given a new dimension to this process “Democracy’’ being a moral notion in many perspectives is known for being manipulated and mis-interpreted by ‘big-fish’, not for the sake of democratization but for their own interests. Its best manifestation or reflection could be the results from Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
 Then what is democracy is all about? This can be interpreted in many perspectives, but a substantive perspective of democracy is nothing but good life. C.B.Macpherson, a contemporary exponent of the radical theory of democracy, has a view that different types of systems which undertake to fulfill the aspirations of the masses, enjoy support of the masses and provide for an opportunity for the amelioration of the conditions of the masses, qualify as democracies, irrespective of the structures and procedures adopted by them for surviving these purposes. 
 Many questions could be asked: does the present proxies of demoralization vis-à-vis the phenomenon of globalization fulfills the aspirations of the different sections of contemporary societies? Does present process of democratization reflects a substantive or a true nature of democracy? Is globalization phenomenon conducive for democratization? Do the forces working under globalization trend favor the democratization? These questions require a deeper analysis given the new paradigms which are prevalent in present day societies. One important analysis of these new paradigms has been given by Ulrich-beck’s idea (1992) of a “RISK-Society”. A “RISK-Society” is one that is characterized by rising individualism and associated weakening of tradition, community and established institution. The basic question vis-à-vis the phenomenon of globalization is that, can true nature of democracy survive in the globalized world? Can values of democracy and its prospectus survive or could be achieved under the phenomenon of globalization? Deep analysis reveals the fact that democracy and globalization are not compatible to one-another. The value of democracy have been underestimated by the forces (MNC’S, TNC’S) which are in operation in globalized world. In the globalized world people’s basic values and even the sense of identity is called to question. 

part II can be read at greaterkashmir.com of dated 28th feb. 2008