India-Afghan Strategic Partnership and peace in the Af-Pak region

                India-Afghan Strategic Partnership and peace in the Af-Pak region

28 feb. 2011

The ‘Strategic Partnership’ between India and Afghanistan is a substantive leap per se as it will help destabilized Afghanistan to move forward in its stabilization process in both political-cum-strategic senses. The partnership will also help India strategically and it will gain leverage in negotiating the political landscaping of the Afghanistan. Moreover, the strategic partnership may culminate the albatross around India in dealing with strategic interests in South and Central Asia.    

Kabul and New Delhi signed a landmark strategic partnership agreement during Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s visit to New Delhi recently. The strategic partnership includes training, equipping and capacity building of the Afghan National Security Services, institutional framework for their future cooperation in the fields of political and security cooperation, trade and economic cooperation, capacity building and education, and social, cultural, civil society and people- to-people relations. Moreover, two MoUs were also signed for the development of minerals and natural gas in Afghanistan and also India’s commitment of $1.2 billion developmental aid for reconstruction and infrastructural development in Afghanistan.

The timing of strategic partnership between India and Afghanistan is good from Indian point of view as Obama administration in Washington D. C. is set to withdraw its combat forces from the Afghanistan by 2014. India has apprehension about resurgence and regrouping of Taliban in Kabul in post-American withdrawal as India perceives it as detriment of its national security. India has been impressing the US to relook on its withdrawal policy as revealed through Wiki Leaks. WiKiLeaKs cable dated February 11, 2010, sent from New Delhi on the eve of Senator John Kerry's visit (248366: secret), outlined Indian worries over the possibility of a U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan. “On Afghanistan, there are underlying concerns that U.S. policy foreshadows an early exit from Afghanistan with negative security consequences for India. India has expressed concern about the outlines of the reintegration policy promoted by the Karzai government and supported by the US.”

India is very much concerned about post-American withdrawal Kabul as if Taliban re-emerges in power it may hit India strategically and its nexus with Pak army is big worrisome for Indian establishment. To what extent this apprehension is tenable needs great appraisal as we cannot think future Afghan without Taliban. Taliban is one of the elements in Afghanistan to which reconciliation is significant for the final settlement of the Afghan problem. In June 2011, the International Crisis Group reported that the Taliban had expanded far beyond its stronghold in the south and southeast to central-eastern provinces. "Insurgent leaders have achieved momentum in the central-eastern provinces by employing a strategy that combines the installation of shadow governments, intimidation, and the co-opting of government officials," it noted. Therefore, India has to some where accommodate the Taliban in its Afghan policy and for the long-term benefit India should rethink on its apprehension about re-emergence of Taliban in Kabul.

Some circles in Pak establishment are highly concerned with India’s growing influence in Karzai’s administration in Kabul. The recent strategic partnership between India and Afghanistan has been closely watched by Pak establishment and deemed it as an ‘encirclement’ of Pakistan. Though the Afghan President in his address was calculative in using the word ‘twin brother’ for Pakistan but it could not have pleased all the sections of Pak establishment.

The Indian developmental projects and aid to Afghanistan is also irritating Islamabad as it consider Indian growing presence in the region threat to the national security of Pakistan. The apprehensions of Pakistan are tenable as it has close link and proximity with Afghanistan on political, cultural, religious, ethnicity etc. grounds. But at the same time Islamabad should also take the cognizance of India’s role in the future stabilized Afghanistan.  A group of senior non-official American and Russian policy analysts recently spent a long discussion on various issues pertaining the future Afghanistan and the role of big and neighboring powers. Everyone agreed that Pakistan's goals in Afghanistan were strongly influenced by its desire to eliminate Indian influence. Some of the Russian participants went a step further and argued that changing India-Pakistan relations was essential to stabilizing Afghanistan. Therefore it is highly desirable and essential that both India and Pakistan should take note of each other’s concerns and should avoid the policy of zero-sum-game.

Indian policy in Af-Pak region should not be exclusionary in nature and should not be at the cost of Pakistan. Excluding the Pakistan or pursuing anything against Pakistan in Af-Pak region would not help in overcoming the crisis the region is confronted with. Pak-India reconciliation and peace is imperative for maintaining the peace in the region and also building the future Afghanistan.

 The crisis in Washington-Islamabad relations which increased after the assassination of former Afghan President Burhanudin Rabani, who was given a job to reconcile with Taliban by Karzai’s Administration backed by USA. The US alleged Pakistan about ISI role in the Assassination of former Afghan President and impressed Islamabad to deal strictly against terrorist operating along Af-Pak region. If India pursues policies against Pakistan it may help the fundamentalist forces to substantiate their approach towards the region and would destabilize the whole region eventually.    

    Therefore, India should not extract its individual benefits from the abyss in Washington-Islamabad relations and alleviation in Delhi-Kabul relations as that may derail peace and would not help in stabilizing the regional cooperation and bilateral relations. Rather India should seek this as an opportunity to build understanding with Pakistan in resolving both bilateral as well as regional issues amicably.