(the article was originally published by the Third Concept, An International Journal of Ideas in its January addition of 2015 )
Abstract:
The
geopolitics and geo-economics of the Asia Pacific region is emerging in a new
dynamism in the 21st century as the region does provide highly
significant trade routes, energy, and rich island with huge resources which
make this region much attractive not only to the Asia Pacific countries, but
even to those who are not directly part of it. Since the rise of China as a
significant power it has poses a huge challenges to the other powers of the
region, particularly to the USA and its alliance partners. India being one of
the Asia Pacific countries has significant stakes in the geopolitics of the
region. The paper has divulged in the dynamism of new emerging power equations
in the region and the challenges it has posed to the Indian state.
Geopolitics
of Asia Pacific:
The Asia pacific Region is one of
the largest dynamic regions in the world not only in context of its large size
as it stretches from Indian Ocean to the shores of Americas, but also from the
point that the region is very productive and promising interms of trade,
resources, navigation etc. The Asia Pacific Region is highly debatable in the
domain of international politics particularly after the announcement of the
‘Asia Pivot’ by the United States in 2011, by then US Secretary of State,
Hillary Clinton.[i]
The broader contours of the pivot was about “strategic rebalance” and “Asia
focus” vis-à-vis United States’ policies in the 21st century are
concerned. Some analysts interpret the ‘pivot’ as a hedge towards the assertive
China and its growing militarism in the region.[ii]
In the recent times some
accentuated developments in the Asia Pacific region have exacerbated the
fishing process in the domain of geo-politics of the region. The dispute
between China and Japan over the islands
of Diaoyu/Senkaku in the East China Sea, the Chinese ‘indisputable claims’ in
the South China Sea and the recent India-Vietnam understanding over the
explorations in the South China Sea and the dragging of USA by the feeling of
insecurity by certain countries in the region such as Vietnam, Philippines,
Japan etc. have made the region more volatile and complicated in the spheres of
geopolitics and geo-economics of the region.[iii]
The involvement of the United States and its containment policy towards China
has given birth to the new paradigms and power equations in the region. One
side US try to get quadrilateral approach which consists of US, Japan, India
and Australia a group to be maneuvered towards a growing threat of Chinese
designs in the region. On the another side USA has also contemplations on the
G2 formula (USA and China) which is unlikely to get harness keeping in view the
traditional alliance of USA with the some countries in the region such as
Japan, Philippines, South Korea etc. and their traditional wedge with the
China.
The first Prime Minister of
India, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru in his autobiography ‘Discovery of India’ has
also dealt with the Asia Pacific and the significance of the region for future
independent India and he was probably first one who did talk about the sort of ‘pivot’.[iv]
There are three power equations emerged in the post World War II period
vis-à-vis geopolitics of Asia Pacific region. One which Henry Kissinger, former
US Secretary of State, created ones he tried to broke the communist bloc by
patronizing the rise of China in 1970’s during the Cold War Era. This was a
triangular bloc consists of USA, Japan and China and the premises of this power
equation was to contain the former Soviet Union. That time US played China card
against India as India was inclined towards the Soviet Union.[v]
There is another power equation in the Asia Pacific region encompasses USA,
Japan and India which US want to maneuver against the rising China and its associated
challenges in the Asia Pacific region. There is another triangle consists of
India, Japan and China, which is unlikely to get mature keeping in view the
historical rift in their bilateral relations. A deep analysis of these
triangular power equations reflects the US centered policy which they use for
their own national interests. They used the China against the Soviet Union and
now they try to use India against the Chinese rising threat.
In the Year 2012 Chinese
President Xi Jinping during his visit to United States introduced the new Idea
of a ‘new power of great power relationship’ in the domain of US-Sino bilateral
relationship. There are some experts who believe that rising China would create
what some referred to as “the Thucydides trap”, a situation when power shifts
from emerged power to an emerging one as has happened during the rise of
ancient Athens and the fear it created among the Spartans in the 5th
century BC.[vi]
The rising China poses a ‘big power dilemma’ in the US and in some European
countries and therefore, there is an expected counter approach to the ‘Chinese
rise’ from US and its partners in Europe and Asia.
Delhi-Tokyo
Chemistry:
The recent concluded visit of
Japan by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has unveiled a new dimension in
the geopolitics of the Asia Pacific region. The visit has commenced ‘a new
start’ in the form of “special strategic and global partnership” in the
Delhi-Tokyo bilateral relationship, which per se is a recalibration of earlier
concluded “strategic and global partnership”. The visit is successful in some
areas as Japan has promised to invest US $35.5 billion in infrastructure
development, energy sector and for the skill development in India.[vii]
The larger approach of the visit
was to concede a big breakthrough on Indo-Japan civil nuclear agreement but, no
such breakthrough was achieved on this front as Japan has certain reservation
vis-à-vis India’s stand on Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The nuclear
issue is lingering there since Indo-US nuclear agreement signed in 2008,
because India is non-signatory to the Nuclear proliferation treaty (NPT) which
Japan is adherent to. Nevertheless, Japan has promised India for its membership
into the Multilateral Export Control Regime (MECR), an international body to
use their national export control system such as- Wassenaar Arrangements,
Nuclear Suppliers group, Australia Group and Missile Technology Control Regime
(MCTR), if achieved it will be a huge bonus for India’s nuclear programme and
also it will substantiate India’s global power dream.[viii]
The visit to Japan by Indian
Prime Minister brings scant comfort to the Asian Dragon China as in the
editorial of the Global Times, one of the leading newspapers in China, quoted
“Modi-Abe intimacy brings scant comfort” to Beijing during the Modi’s recent
visit to Japan.[ix]
When Dr. Manmohan Singh, ex prime Minister of India visited Japan in October 2008
said that India’s economic and security relations with Tokyo would not be “at
the cost of any third country, least of all China”. This time the Indian Prime
Minister Modi while interacting with the business leaders in Tokyo did talk
about the deepening of strategic and security cooperation between New Delhi and
Tokyo would bring ‘prosperity and peace’ in the Asia but at the same time he
also talk about ‘countering an expansionist mindset’. He was also quoted by the
Global Times on his saying that “everywhere around us, we see an 18th
century expansionist mind set: encroaching on another country, intruding in
others waters, invading other countries and capturing territory”.[x]
This was an explicit reference of China’s recent policies in the Asia Pacific.
Therefore, one would expect a serious reaction from the Beijing to the Modi-Abe
intimacy.
Modi’s succinct reference of
China in Japan had not been welcomed in the circles of Chinese strategists and
may probably intimidate the dragon to take extra measures to counter
India-Japan security cooperation. Mr. Modi emphasized on the Chinese expansionist
policies in Japan, while countering China directly would it benefit India
strategically? China is India’s indispensable neighbor and economically there are
colossal opportunities in the peaceful bilateral relations. India and China
signed “shared vision on the 21st century” during the visit of Dr.
Manmohan Singh to Beijing at the beginning of the year 2009. There is a
prospective growth in the bilateral economic and trade cooperation worth of
about US$ 65 billion, which has ability to reach a bench mark of US$ 100
billion.
India
and the Dragon factor:
The policies of China in the
Asia-Pacific are sending alarming signals to its neighboring countries. The
announcement of ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) in the month of November
2013 in the East China Sea had brought insecurity in many countries such as
Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan etc.[xi] The
larger picture of the ADIZ is about the fact that it does also include the much
disputed islands of Diaoyu/Senkaku which are claimed by both China and Japan.
The Japan believes that declaring ADIZ along these Islands in the East China
Sea is an attack on the sovereignty of Japan therefore; it won’t be acceptable
to the Japan. The China has different argument as it believe the Islands were
subjugated during the Japanese imperial rule. The situation gets more
complicated with US involvement in the affairs of Asia pacific. The USA has its
own ADIZ created in the aftermath of the World War II and was transferred to
Japan in 1969. Some analysts believe that the recent agreement between Japan
and India on flying uninterrupted civil aircrafts between the two countries is
a counter measure to the Chinese ADIZ. Indian involvement in the exploration
exercises in the region, as has been agreed with the government of Vietnam
during the recent visit of Indian foreign minister, Sushima Swaraj. Some
believe that India has accelerated its fishing in the Asia Pacific region.[xii]
There is no doubt about the fact that India is an Asia Pacific country and it
has every right to deal with the region as per its national interest. But, at
the same time India need to be an extra vigilant about its involvement in the
designs created by the USA and Japan vis-à-vis China. Since it is imperative
from both politically as well as strategically on the part of Indian government
to substantiate its interests and engagements in the Asia Pacific region, but
it should not get trap in any sort of power bloc, that won’t be good for India
in the longrun.
In
the recent survey conducted by the Pew Research Centre, it has been identified
that many Asian countries are of the view that Chinese “indisputable
sovereignty” claim over the South China Sea and its dispute with Japan over the
islands of
Diaoyu/Senkaku would create a dangerous situation which may lead towards an
inter-state war in the region. The keeping of oil rig deep into Vietnam’s
Exclusive Economic Zone in the month of August has made Vietnam much insecure
and these policies of China in the region brings the USA, as most of East and
South Asian countries believe USA as an credible hedge inorder to check the
growing assertive the China.[xiii]
The assertive Chinese and its counter parameters initiated by the US with its
alliance partners; inorder to check the rising China has put the India in a
sticky situation. In many ways, India and China are natural partners,
since being neighbors who share a long boundary. For more than 5,000 years they
were culturally and religiously interacting with each other, peacefully and
normally, except for a relatively brief period of 20 years from 1958 to 1978. Though,
India was among the first countries that recognized China as a communist state
in 1949. The India and the China signed the Panchsheel agreement in 1954 which
underlines the principles working as fundamentals in the bilateral relations.[xiv]
India
and China accounts for one-third of the world’s population and are seen to be
rising 21st century powers and potential strategic rivals. The two
countries fought a brief but intense border war in 1962 that left China in
control of large swaths of territory still claimed by India. The clash ended
previously friendly relationship between the two leaders of the cold war
“non-aligned movement”. Although Sino-Indian relations have warmed considerable
in recent years, the two countries have yet to reach a final boundary agreement.
Adding to New Delhi’s sense of insecurity have been suspicions regarding
Chinese long term nuclear weapons capabilities and strategic intentions in
south and Southeast Asia.[xv]
Beijing’s military and economic support of Pakistan is a major and ongoing
source of friction. New Delhi also has taken note of Beijing’s security
relations with neighboring Burma and the construction of military facilities on
the Indian Ocean. The two countries also have competed for energy resources to
feed their rapidly growing economies.
The recent visit of Chinese
President Xi Jinping to the India has started a ‘new mile Stone’ in the
bilateral engagements. The two sides have decided to setup two industrial parks
in India with Chinese investment in India equivalent to US$ 20 billion in the
next five years. The two countries have committed to resolve all the sticky
issues persisting between the two countries particularly the dispute over
undemarcated boundary, issuing of stapled visas by China, trade imbalances etc
The China and India share some
similar concerns and policies vis-à-vis some tricky international issues
particularly on climate and international trade. Both the states have closely
coordinated in the negotiations pertaining to the climate, Doha Round talks in
World Trade Organization, energy and food cooperation and restructuring of
international organizations particularly financial such as World Bank and
International Monitory Fund. The recent development in the Indo-Sino bilateral
relations is their cooperation in the BRICS’s (grouping of Brazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africa) recent Fortaleza Summit at Brazil wherein a New
Development Bank of BRICS has been unveiled whose headquarter would be in China
whereas its first president would be from Indian.[xvi]
The biggest irritant in the
Sino-India engagements are unresolved border issue and Chinese attritions along
the Indo-China border. The unresolved border cannot be pretext for any sort of
war mongering and should not be made a hostage in the larger bilateral relations.
There is always a chance of conspiracy theory in the Sino-India relations
keeping in view the prospects and opportunities which can be achieved in the
relations. It is well known fact that the 21st century is Asian
century and the two biggest giants of the Asia are none other than India and
China. There is already a debate about the Western backlash against the new
trend in geopolitics and geo-economics of the globe whose pendulum is inclined
towards the two giants of Asia not USA or Great Brittan. The driving seat of
the globe is likely to shift from Atlantic to Asia Pacific and the drivers
would be India and China. Deng Xiaoping in 1988 said to then Indian Prime
Minister Rajiv Gandhi that “the Asian Age could only come when China and India
become developed”.[xvii]
There is already a huge possibility about trap of the India and the China in
the Western conspiracies. Kishore Mahbubani, a Singapore based academic and
former diplomat in his book ‘The New Asian Hemisphere: the Irresistible Shift
of Global Power to the East’ has provided a deep analysis about the rise of
Asia and the hypocritical attitude of West about the new reality. He further
asserted that “end of era of Western domination” has culminated and West is not
recognizing the fact that the tectonic plates of political landscape of the
globe has shifted towards East. The Prof. Mahubani warned that there is
“greater danger” if west do not come and accept this new reality.[xviii]
The West is playing duel game
vis-à-vis their policies towards China and India. One side they project the
democracy and the liberal values of freedom of speech and expression and the
free opinion a bench mark for any Western engagements on the premises of that
India is differentiated from China. But other side the undemocratic China is
welcome as it is inevitable for West to ignore it simply because of the reason
that the China is very close to become World’s largest economy. If India and
China come close, it will pose a huge challenge to West to reckon with. There
are already some visible signs about the fact that how tough it would be for
West to deal with a situation if hindi-chini become real bhai-bhai. The
Sino-India mutual cooperation in the climate negotiations, WTO etc are posing a
huge challenge to the western dominance.
India should not indulge in any
such activity hosted by the Western countries particularly in the Asia Pacific
which would derail the prospects of better Sino-India bilateral relations.
India cannot trust the West policies vis-à-vis China as they are habitual to
change their stance as per their national interests. There are some unnecessary
activities in the recent past on the part of India which might have accelerated
certain negative signals in the Beijing. In the 2007 Malabar war games at sea
involving ships from India, Japan, Australia, USA and Singapore.[xix]
Not only China, even the all weather friend Russia also had shown certain
reservations about such exercises. The quadrilateral dialogue involving India,
USA, Japan and Australia is also not welcome in the Beijing. India will gain
more if it get involved with Chinese and the war mongers on both sides won’t be
able to highjack the peaceful and cooperative bilateral relations for their
pretty interests since the fact is that no country would be so desperate and
crazy to think about a war if that is at the cost of US $ billions.
The
US designs are to build up India as a counterweight in conventional forces and
to some extent nuclear stalemate vis-à-vis China, without permitting a future
rising economically powerful India to become a challenging nuclear power like
Russia or China. Thus it wants to limit India’s fissile material stockpile and
slow its ICBM (Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles) and nuclear submarine
capabilities by putting as many of India’s nuclear facilities as possible,
under IAEA safeguards.
The instated benefit to United States appears
to be its assessment that India could be counter-weight to a “rising China” in
the region. Though this is not the view of some India policymakers who believe
that a constructive engagement with China is more beneficial and not linked to
any military or strategic relationship with the United States. “US policymakers
of both political parties had long been concerned about a rising China, and by
strengthening relations with China’s next-door neighbor, the administration saw
the potential for a strategic hedge,” observe Michael A. Levi and Charles D.
Ferguson.[xx]
India
is “a potential hedge against a rising China”, notes Ashley Tellis in his
Carnegie report, weaving together the threads of worry running through Washington.
US leaders are concerned about the growth of the Chinese military, its monetary
policy, its vicious attacks on Japan and its increasing power projection
capabilities.[xxi] Ashley
J Tellis, a senior State Department official and a key architect of the new
strategic policy on India, has argued that a build-up of India’s nuclear
arsenal is not only in New Delhi’s interest, but Washington’s too. It will
cause Beijing to worry more about India and less about United States, Tellis
says.[xxii]
“This is an effort to counterbalance the rise of China, but I would not go so far
as to say to contain China or to be antagonistic towards it” said L. Gordon
Flake, executive director of the Mansfield foundations in Washington. He
further said that, “We obviously have an interest in a large, democratic,
multiethnic society as counterbalance to the Chinese in the region”.[xxiii]
Other than some geopolitical
rivalry India should more focus on substantiating of its soft power in the
region which per se is possible only if India does not indulge in bloc or
alliance politics in the region. Soft Power is a relevant weapon than hard
power weaponry in the 21st century in realms of a national power.
The soft power has three broad dimensions: culture, political values and foreign
policy with moral authority as has been conceptualized by Harvard Professor
Joseph Nye (it was the Nye who coined the term soft power). In the book the
Paradox of American Power, Nye argued that key to the successful foreign policy
in the 21st century lies in the soft power which per se is based on
ones culture, multiple channels of communication and domestic and international
performances.[xxiv]
India has a huge bonus vis-à-vis soft power keeping in view its legacy of its
rich civilization, birth place of many religions and cultures, India’s huge Diaspora,
a rich traditional practice of Yoga and Ayurveda, software technology,
Bollywood etc. Sunil Khilnani argued that the greatest dimension of India’s
soft power is its “accumulated political legitimacy” rather than real accumulation
of power.[xxv]
Therefore, India should more focus on harnessing these opportunities provided
in its soft power domain rather than indulging in the power politics.
Moreover, the India being an
emerging Asia Pacific power should be highly vigilant towards the new emerging
power equations in the region. Its approach should be more from the prism of
its traditional legacy of NAM (Non-Aligned Movement) rather than from any
polarity or alliance system.
The author is Assistant Professor
in Political Science at GDC Dooru, University of Kashmir, J & K State,
India.
(Endnot
[i]
Clinton Hilary, “America’s Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, November 2011.
[ii]
Morse S. Eric, “Pivot to Asia: Calculus and Consequences”, Vol. 21, Issue 4,
February 2012, accessed at http://www.nationalstrategy .com
[iii]
“China Recalibrates its territorial Posturing”, 08 August, 2014, accessed at
http://www.aljazeera.com
[iv] Nehru
Jawaharalal, the Discovery of India (New Delhi: Penguin Books India, 2004)
[v]
Malone M. David, Does the Elephant Dance: Contemporary Indian Foreign policy
(New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2011) p. 154-57.
[vi]
Zoellick B. Robert, “U.S., China and Thucydides”, Foreign Affairs, Issue
July-August 2013, accessed at http://www.foreignaffairs .com
[vii]
Accessed from, The Hindu, 02 September 2014.
[viii]
Ibid.
[ix]
“Modi-Abe Intimacy Brings Scant Comfort”, Global Times, 02 September 2014
accessed at http://www.english.people.com.cn
[x]
Ibid.
[xi]
“What Happened to the Asia Pivot in 2013”, 20 December 2013, accessed at
http://www.cfr.org
[xii]
Minghao Zhao, “Mutual Great Power Ambitions Bring India and Japan Together”,
Global Times, 01 September 2014, accessed at http://www.english.people.com.cn
[xiii]
China Recalibrates its territorial Posturing”, 08 August, 2014, accessed at
http://www.aljazeera.
[xiv]
Jabin Jacob, “Indo-US Nuclear Deal: the China factor”, Available at
htpp://www.comw.org./pda/0603india.
[xv]
Venugopal Menon, “India-China relations: critical issues”, Rajen Harsha and
K.M. Sethi. Engaging with the World: critical reflections on India’s foreign policy
(ed.), Oriental Longman, New Delhi, 2005, pp. 156-57.
[xvi]
Saran Samir, “Waking up to the BRICS”, The Hindu, 06 August 2014.
[xvii]
Yan Zhang, “India-China Relations in one of the best periods in history”, The
Hindu, 09 April, 2009.
[xviii]
Suroor Hassan, “The rise of Asia and West’s petulant response”, The Hindu, 30
May, 2008.
[xix]
Bhadrakumar M. K., “Engaging China as a friendly neighbour”, The Hindu, 10
April, 2008.
[xx]
Michael A. Levi and Charles D. Ferguson, “US-India Nuclear Cooperation: A
Strategy for Moving Forward”, Council
on Foreign relations, United States, CSR No. 16, June 2006, Available at
http://www.cfr.org.
[xxi]
Ashley J. Tellis. India as a New Global
Power; An Action Agenda for the United States, Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, Washington D.C., 2005, pp. 54-55.
[xxii]
Ashley J. Tellis. Atoms for War:
U.S.-Indian Civilian Nuclear Cooperation and India’s Nuclear Arsenal,
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington D. C., 2006, p. 42
[xxiii]
“China urges India, US to follow rules”, The Dawn, Online edition, March 3,
2006.
[xxiv]
Malone M. David, “Soft Power in Indian Foreign Policy”, Economic and Political
Weekly, Vol. XLVI NO 36, 03 September, 2011.
[xxv]
Ibid.
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